Evaluasi Dampak Bantuan Sosial Daerah terhadap Pengeluaran dan Konsumsi per Kapita Provinsi Kalimantan Timur

Abstract

Social assistance is a fiscal policy instrument to reduce inequality and improve household welfare. East Kalimantan has a high GRDP but faces income inequality, reflected in its Gini Ratio, the highest in Kalimantan since 2022. Unlike previous studies that mainly evaluated national social assistance or specific programs such as PKH, BPNT, BST, and Raskin, evidence on local government social assistance in East Kalimantan remains limited. This study addresses this gap using 2023 Susenas data and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to reduce selection bias between beneficiary and non-beneficiary households. The unit of analysis is the household, with local social assistance receipt as the treatment and per capita food expenditure, non-food expenditure, calorie intake, protein intake, and carbohydrate intake as outcomes. Propensity scores are estimated using a logit model based on household characteristics, followed by Nearest Neighbor Matching, covariate balance testing, and Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) estimation. The results show that local social assistance reduces expenditure burdens by 10.53% for food and 11.69% for non-food, but does not significantly improve consumption quality. The findings imply that provincial and district/city governments in East Kalimantan should improve beneficiary targeting, direct assistance toward nutritious food, and conduct periodic evaluations using integrated data.